Three Tiers of Non-Customers
From Kim & Mauborgne's Blue Ocean Strategy, the Three Tiers of Non-Customers framework redirects attention from existing customers to the 90%+ of the market that doesn't buy your category. Tier 1: 'Soon-to-be' non-customers — people who buy minimally, looking to jump ship.…
The trap
The trap is treating non-customers as a research topic rather than a design constraint. Teams interview non-customers, learn interesting things, then go build features for existing customers anyway because 'that's where the revenue is.' But the math of blue oceans depends on attracting non-customers en masse — if your roadmap doesn't materially address Tier 2 and Tier 3 barriers, you don't have a blue ocean strategy. The other trap is going after only one tier (e.g., Tier 1) which is essentially competitive churn, not market creation.
What to do
For each tier, run a structured discovery: (1) Tier 1 — survey 50 minimal users about what they'd want to buy MORE of if pain points X/Y/Z were removed. (2) Tier 2 — interview 20 people who actively chose substitutes; ask 'what would have to be true for you to consider this category?' (3) Tier 3 — identify a market that has never been thought of as a potential buyer (e.g., children for adult products, rural for urban services); test if the underlying job-to-be-done exists. Look for COMMON barriers across all three tiers — those commonalities are your blue ocean targets.
In practice
JCDecaux, the French outdoor advertising company, mapped non-customers in the 1960s. Tier 1: minimal billboard advertisers who were unhappy with high costs. Tier 2: retailers who refused billboards because of poor location targeting. Tier 3: businesses that had never considered outdoor advertising because they assumed it required mass-market budgets. JCDecaux's commonality across all three: lack of long-term, prime-location ad space at predictable economics. Their solution — providing free street furniture (bus shelters, kiosks) to municipalities in exchange for exclusive 8-15 year ad rights — addressed all three tiers simultaneously. Result: created the entire 'street furniture advertising' category and became a multi-billion-dollar global business.
Pro tips
- 01
Don't research the three tiers in isolation. Run them in PARALLEL with the same interview guide. The goal isn't to understand each tier deeply — it's to find the 2-3 barriers that show up in ALL THREE. Those overlapping barriers are the blue ocean signal.
- 02
Tier 3 is the highest-leverage but the hardest to find. By definition, you're looking for buyers your industry has never considered. Use the question 'who in adjacent industries has the SAME job-to-be-done but solves it completely differently?' to surface Tier 3 candidates.
- 03
Beware false Tier 2 signals. 'I rejected the category because of X' is often rationalization — you need to observe BEHAVIOR (what they actually use instead) and test whether changing X would shift behavior. Stated reasons for rejection are wrong about 50% of the time.
Myth vs reality
Myth
“Non-customer research is the same as TAM analysis”
Reality
TAM measures the SIZE of the addressable market assuming current category economics. Non-customer research questions the category economics themselves. TAM tells you how big the existing pie could be. Three Tiers tells you how to bake a different pie that's 5x bigger.
Myth
“Going after non-customers means abandoning current customers”
Reality
Done well, addressing common barriers across all three tiers also retains current customers because the changes that bring in non-customers (lower complexity, better access, simpler pricing) usually delight existing customers too. The exception: when current customers are buying the COMPLEXITY (e.g., enterprise IT buyers), in which case you may need to fork the offering.
Try it
Run the numbers.
Pressure-test the concept against your own knowledge — answer the challenge or try the live scenario.
Knowledge Check
A premium gym chain analyzes non-customers. Tier 1 (occasional members): cite cost as the issue. Tier 2 (refusers): cite intimidation and lack of guidance. Tier 3 (never-considered — seniors): cite physical accessibility concerns. What's the strongest blue ocean signal?
Industry benchmarks
Is your number good?
Calibrate against real-world tiers. Use these ranges as targets — not absolutes.
Non-Customer Market Size (Multiple of Current Customer Base)
Approximate ratios from Blue Ocean Strategy case research across consumer and B2B categoriesTier 1 (Soon-to-Be)
1-3x current base
Tier 2 (Refusing)
5-15x current base
Tier 3 (Unexplored)
10-50x current base
Combined Blue Ocean Potential
16-68x current base
Source: Kim & Mauborgne, Blue Ocean Strategy (2005)
Real-world cases
Companies that lived this.
Verified narratives with the numbers that prove (or break) the concept.
JCDecaux
1964-1980
JCDecaux mapped non-customers of the outdoor ad industry. Tier 1: low-volume billboard buyers frustrated with cost and rotation. Tier 2: local retailers who rejected billboards because of poor targeting and short lease terms. Tier 3: small businesses that never considered outdoor advertising at all because they assumed it required nationwide-brand budgets. The COMMON barrier: lack of access to long-term, prime-location ad space at small-business economics. Solution: install bus shelters, public toilets, and kiosks for free in cities, in exchange for exclusive 8-15 year ad rights. This made prime locations available with predictable, small-buyer economics.
Cities (Today)
3,800+ globally
Revenue (2023)
€3.6B
Category Created
Street furniture advertising
Tier 3 Conversion
~80% of new customers
JCDecaux didn't compete with Clear Channel for billboard customers. They created a new advertising category by addressing the COMMON barrier across all three tiers: access to prime locations on small-buyer economics.
Salesforce
1999-2003
Salesforce mapped CRM non-customers. Tier 1: SMBs paying for Siebel-lite tools they barely used. Tier 2: SMBs that rejected CRM after failed Siebel/Oracle implementations. Tier 3: solo professionals (real estate agents, financial advisors) who had never considered enterprise CRM at all. Common barrier across all tiers: complexity of installation and IT dependency. Solution: browser-based, no-software, credit-card sign-up. The 'No Software' branding addressed all three tiers' shared barrier.
Tier 1+2+3 Combined Market
~30x existing CRM market
Salesforce Revenue (2003)
$96M
Salesforce Revenue (2023)
$34.9B
Sign-up Time
Minutes vs months
Siebel won the existing CRM market and was destroyed by Salesforce serving the non-customers. The 90% you're not selling to is bigger than the 10% you are.
Decision scenario
Choosing Where to Hunt
You run product strategy at a $40M ARR project management SaaS. Growth has slowed to 8% YoY. The CEO wants you to identify the 'next $100M of growth.' You can chase Tier 1 (occasional users), Tier 2 (refusers), or Tier 3 (never-considered).
ARR
$40M
Growth Rate
8% (down from 30%)
Customers
12,000 teams
Existing Market Saturation
~70%
Decision 1
Your team has time/budget to deeply explore ONE tier in the next quarter. Tier 1 research suggests 'better notifications and integrations' will increase usage. Tier 2 research is unscoped. Tier 3 has been suggested by an analyst — 'what about non-knowledge-workers? Construction crews? Restaurant teams?' but no one has interviewed them.
Focus on Tier 1 — fast wins from the customers we already understand. Better notifications and integrations should lift usage and retention.Reveal
Run a parallel discovery sprint — interview Tier 2 refusers AND Tier 3 deskless workers. Look for COMMON barriers before committing.✓ OptimalReveal
Related concepts
Keep connecting.
The concepts that orbit this one — each one sharpens the others.
Beyond the concept
Turn Three Tiers of Non-Customers into a live operating decision.
Use this concept as the framing layer, then move into the matched diagnostic — or have us scope the build.
Typical response time: 24h · No retainer required
Turn Three Tiers of Non-Customers into a live operating decision.
Use Three Tiers of Non-Customers as the framing layer, then move into diagnostics or advisory if this maps directly to a current business bottleneck.